With the market oversold, we’re buying a geopolitical hedge and an unfairly punished beer stock
We are buying 300 shares of Coterra Energy at roughly $26.85 and 25 shares of Constellation Brands at roughly $255.56. Following the trades, Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust will own 2,900 shares of CTRA, increasing its weighting to 2.5% from 2.23% and 375 shares of STZ, increasing its weighting to 3.05% from 2.85%. With the S & P 500 Short Range Oscillator firmly entrenched in oversold territory at minus 6.3%, the market is at a level that calls for dipping into our large cash position. While we may see a trend develop like last summer — when we had two failed attempts at an oversold rally before finally getting a sustainable bounce in late October — our discipline says that anytime the S & P Oscillator gets this oversold, it’s a sign equities have fallen fast and we need to start thinking about the stocks of quality companies more opportunistically. One place we’re putting cash to work is Coterra Energy . Here’s our general thinking on the decision: If the current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further escalate and as a result U.S. oil prices rise to $95 per barrel, we might regret not having enough oil exposure in our portfolio. If the commodity reached that price level, companies like Coterra would benefit immensely. Cotetrra, in particular, would essentially be printing money with its low cost structure. On the other hand, if tensions ease and U.S. oil prices drop back below $80 per barrel, some inflationary pressures on the economy will ease, which could boost the rest of the stocks in the portfolio. Essentially, we see this buy as a hedge. In general, we continue to appreciate Coterra’s ability to adjust its capital investment between oil and natural gas based on economic conditions. Indeed, management’s decision to i ncrease its oil investments at the start of the year while reducing natural gas production looks smarter every day. Natural gas prices remain depressed, at roughly $1.685 per million British thermal units, or MMBtu, in Tuesday’s session. The magnitude of the pullback in Constellation Brands over the past three sessions, down nearly 5%, doesn’t add up to us. The stock climbed 1.3%, to $268.35 per share from roughly $265, after reporting an earnings beat with an upbeat full-year outlook on Thursday. The beer business continued its momentum with strong sales growth and depletions well ahead of expectations. Remember, Constellation is a volume-driven story, meaning it doesn’t rely on forcing higher prices onto consumers to deliver its double-digit earnings growth. The quarter will stand out this earnings season as other consumer goods companies grapple with the tension of higher prices and volumes. Also, we think beer is well positioned for a great spring and summer thanks to increased shelf space gains at retailers from the spring reset. Despite all this, Constellation’s stock has done nothing but fall in three straight sessions, including Tuesday, as concerns about interest rates, oil, and geopolitics pull the broader market lower. Maybe the selling pressure is coming from the founding Sands family, which converted their super-voting Class B shares to regular Class A shares in November 2022 . Either way, we think this nearly 5% pullback after a great quarter and guide is a buying opportunity. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long *** FILL IN*** . See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Read the full article here
